Human capital composition, growth and development: an R&D growth model versus data

The effect of human capital composition on growth and development has been somewhat neglected in economic literature. However, evidence has suggested the importance of engineering and technical (high-tech) skills to economic growth, and international organizations have suggested their shortage in developed countries. Using a standard increasing variety growth model, we propose various measures of human capital composition that are related with economic growth and development. When compared to data, the model does well in explaining the rate of growth and the level of development as a function of these measures. “the British colonies had a better educated population (...). Education was secular with emphasis on pragmatic skills and yankee ingenuity (...). The 13 British colonies had nine universities in 1776 for 2.5 million people. New Spain, with 5 million, had only two universities (...) which concentrated on theology and law.” –(Maddison, 2001)     

Endogenous structural change and crisis in a multiple time-scales growth model

The slow and endogenous twist of economic macro-structure makes up an important evolutionary feature of capitalist economies, and may be at the root of structural crisis. In this line, a Goodwinian growth model with increasing returns and profit-sharing that tries to picture a simple scenario of the seventies crisis is considered. It is shown that the exhaustion of the Kaldor-Verdoorn “productivity law” can entail, in a nonlinear framework, a “catastrophic” bifurcation from a “high” to a “low” growth path. Slow/fast dynamical systems then allow one to formalize a multiple time-scales dynamics where the growth path is shaped by the structural framework in which it takes place, but has also a long -un feedback. Structural change and crisis appear as long term and endogenous outcomes.     

消费波动小于产出波动吗?

我们发现东亚主要经济体普遍存在消费波动大于产出波动的现象,初步分析表明这与各经济体的经济转型有关,我国转型期以来比较剧烈的总消费波动应主要归于居民消费行为的转型:(1)以1990年为界,我国居民总消费自经济转型以来的前一个时间段中波动比较剧烈,之后则趋于平稳。进一步地,由于我国的经济改革先从农村开始,而后推进到城镇,相应地农村和城镇居民消费在两个时间段中的波动幅度也出现了明显差异;(2)消费的剧烈波动往往出现在转型早期,在转型后期大部分东亚经济体的消费序列开始变得平稳;(3)耐用品不能解释我国消费的大部分波动性。     

Industrial revolution and mortality revolution: Two of a kind?

In little more than a century life expectancy has doubled in most parts of the world. Neither facts nor theory support the view that this Mortality Revolution is due to the Industrial Revolution and the era of rapid economic growth that ensued. Rather, both revolutions mark the onset of accelerated and sustained technological change in their respective areas. They occur largely independently of each other, the later occurrence of the Mortality Revolution being due to the later development of biomedical vis-a-vis physical knowledge. Comparative study of the two should prove fruitful. Although entrepreneurship is important in each, there appear to be differences in the underlying motivations and the role of private property and other institutions. Links between technological change, on the one hand, and scale of operation, capital inputs, and education, on the other, also offer promising possibilities for comparative study.The author is grateful to Donna Hokoda Ebata and Christine M. Schaeffer for excellent assistance, the University of Southern California for financial support, and to Eileen M. Crimmins, Samuel H. Preston, Morton O. Schapiro, Roger S. Schofield, and two referees for helpful comments.     

从经济理性到有限理性:经济学研究理性假设的演变

"经济理性"是经济学的传统研究假设,却因背离现实而受到质疑.基于行为人稀缺的心理资源和系统固有的不确定性而产生的"有限理性"正逐步取代"经济理性"成为经济学研究的理性假设.不同的理性观点可以从决策的视角得到系统地解释和比较.并且,随着理性假设的演变,经济行为的决策标准也相应从单一静态最优向多元动态平衡转变.     

中国和印度不平衡发展的比较研究

本文考察了中国和印度近年来经济增长不平衡的情况,并分析了不平衡增长对不均等和贫困的影响。通过对家庭调查数据和官方加总数据的分析,本文发现增长存在不平衡——区域间、产业间和家庭层面上,这表明减贫工作进展不平衡,若增长更平衡,减贫效果可能更好;另外,收入不均等程度也在提高。本文探讨了增长不平衡及其应引起重视的原因。具体讨论围绕"有利的"和"不利的"不均等两个概念展开——不均等与不平衡增长对公平性以及长期增长与发展的有利或不利影响。我们认为,需要制定相关政策,保持有利的不均等——继续鼓励创新和投资,同时降低不利的不均等的程度,尤其是通过人力资本和农村基础设施投资,帮助贫困人口参与市场。     

Bank loan versus financial lease: how do traditional and innovative approaches within the banking sector influence economic growth? A comparative analysis between the US and China

ABSTRACT

The argument over the effects of financial structures on economic growth remains unsettled. This study, therefore, compares the dynamic correlation and lead–lag relationship between the different financial approaches within the banking sector (that is, traditional bank loans versus innovative financial leasing) and economic growth. We employ a continuous wavelet analysis using time-series data from 1982–2017 from the US (the world’s largest developed country) and China (the world’s largest developing country). The empirical results show that (1) episodes of significant correlation usually emerge during periods of reform, crisis or policy implementation; and (2) in China, traditional banking promotes economic growth in the long term, while the real economy only imputes the evolution of banks during critical economic reforms in the short term. Meanwhile, financial leasing could only promote the development of the real economy under suitable regulation; and (3) in the US, before the crises, the irrational growth of the real economy could increase bank assets, while during the crises, the traditional banking approach harms economic growth, and after the crises, financial leases play an important role in recovery. Therefore, we suggest that policymakers should establish adequate policies and regulations to solve the situation.     

Leisure time, savings and trade patterns A two-country growth model

This paper proposes a simple two-country endogenous growth model with endogenous consumption, leisure time and wealth accumulation. The model examines possible causes for the world economic growth and the existence and persistence of trade patterns between countries with different preferceces and human capital under internationally free capital mobility. We show how differences in preferences in consumption, leisure time and wealth between the two countries may affect long-run world economic growth.     

企业业绩评价:会计收益与经济收益的博弈

本文在对传统经济收益和会计收益的基本内涵及现时外延分析的基础上,阐述了传统收益的特点和在当前经济环境中遇到的挑战,从经济收益与会计收益选择的博弈与修正中,认为会计学中全面收益理想内涵是与经济学收益完全契合的概念,是经济收益与会计收益博弈过程中达到和谐和统一。同时在分析美英等发达国家的全面收益报告模式的基础上,依据现行经济环境和会计计量条件,提出具有中国特色的全面收益表报告模式。     

经济辐射理论与我国经济发展战略构想

辐射既表现为自然界不同物体间的能量相互传递，也表现为人类社会资源的互相流动。经济辐射理论既可以深化我们对扩大开放的新认识，也可以说明区域、产业等经济发展中的非均衡到均衡过程。